“It remains to be seen whether this week’s unusual GOP midterm convention will fire up the base for the final two months of the campaign, but the party clearly needs some help. Recent polling shows Republicans continue to suffer from a significant enthusiasm deficit heading into the stretch run of the campaign. And crucially, President”, — write on: www.cnn.com
It remains to be seen whether this week’s unusual GOP midterm convention will fire up the base for the final two months of the campaign, but the party clearly needs some help.
Recent polling shows Republicans continue to suffer from a significant enthusiasm deficit heading into the stretch run of the campaign.
And crucially, President Donald Trump — who has been the star of the convention — is proving a much stronger motivator for his critics than his supporters.
The two most recent polls on this came from the University of Massachusetts and Reuters-Ipsos last week. And both show Democrats with a double-digit edge in enthusiasm.
In the former, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in the midterms by a 42%-30% margin. In the latter, the gap was 40%-27%.
Both also show Democrats with an edge — albeit a slightly smaller one — when it came to voters who were at least “somewhat enthusiastic.”
The Reuters-Ipsos numbers were similar to where they were in November 2025, shortly after Democrats had a very good election.
The numbers are also similar to what we saw in July from other pollsters.
A CNN poll conducted by SSRS, for instance, showed a 14-point gap among those saying they were “extremely” motivated to vote — 60% among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents vs. 46% among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. The blue side had a smaller 6-point edge in those saying they were either “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote (79%-73%).
A Washington Post poll showed Democratic-leaning voters were 7 points more likely to be “absolutely certain” to vote (73%-66%), and they were 21 points more likely to say it’s “more important” to vote in 2026 than in previous midterm elections (70%-49%).
And finally, a Quinnipiac University poll showed an 18-point gap on the latter question (57%-39%).
The Democratic advantage is remarkably similar across pollsters and across different types of questions.
What’s more, that pattern looks a lot like the last midterm election year with Trump as president — 2018, which was a good election for Democrats in the House.
Back then, the same polls showed Democrats generally benefited from a double-digit edge among the most motivated voters and a mid-to-high single-digit edge among those who said they were certain to vote.
The Washington Post and Quinnipiac polls in the summer of 2018 also showed Democrats with similar advantages when it came to those who said it was more important to vote that year than in other midterms (17-18 points).
All of these numbers suggest a tough election ahead for Republicans. But if there’s an optimistic case to be made for the GOP, it’s that the numbers aren’t worse, especially since Trump is more unpopular today than he was eight years ago, according to most every poll. Back then, with a similar enthusiasm gap, the 2018 election still ended up being close enough that the GOP gained Senate seats (thanks to a favorable map with multiple red-state Democrats facing daunting reelections).
All of that brings us to the other potential impact of this week’s convention: shining a light on Trump.
One thing that comes through in recent polls is that the president is a much more powerful motivator for the opposition than he is for his supporters:
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62% of Democrats “strongly” agreed they would be voting in significant part based on their feelings about Trump, compared to just 26% of Republicans, according to the UMass poll.
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70% of Democratic-leaning voters said their vote was sending a message of opposition to Trump, compared to just 41% of Republican-leaners who said it would be a message of support, per the CNN poll.
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The same numbers were 81% and 42%, respectively, in a Pew Research Center poll also conducted in July.
All of those numbers reinforce that Trump’s base isn’t enthused about turning out for him. And that’s bleeding into the party’s larger enthusiasm gap.
Perhaps the convention will remind some Trump supporters why they’ve supported him more strongly in the past or convince them that turning out to vote for other Republicans is just that important.
But Trump’s penchant for making these kinds of things all about himself could also have the opposite effect — by reminding his base exactly why they’re so meh about voting.